A Modest Plan for Northern Virginia
26th March 2026
The Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA) wants to build 28 bus-rapid transit lines in the four counties (Fairfax, Loudoun, Arlington, and Prince William) and five cities (Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park) in its jurisdiction. As described in the agency’s Bus Rapid Transit Action Plan, these lines total to 170 miles of bus routes.
I used to think bus-rapid transit was a smart and economical alternative to light rail, but the NVTA expects to spend $4.2 billion on this plan. The actual cost will almost certainly be more: one line that is already underway, the Richmond Highway route, was supposed to cost $638 million, but according to the Federal Transit Administration it is costing $730 million. That route is 7.4 miles long, which means the line is costing almost $100 million per mile.
$100 million a mile is cheaper than light rail, which is averaging more than $300 million a mile for lines now under construction or in planning stages. But it is still a needless expenditure of money, as most of it is going for dedicated bus lanes that will be occupied by ten buses an hour during rush hours, five buses an hour the rest of the day, and no buses an hour at night (midnight to 6 am). Thus, entire lanes of traffic will be dedicated to just 125 vehicles per day.
Of course, mass transit systems aren’t really about providing convenient transit for people who would otherwise drive cars (or who can’t afford cars in the first place). They’re actually jobs programs for Fashionable Minorities—spend a day in the offices of the Dallas Area Rapid Transit system, or a day riding their buses and trains, and I’ll give you five dollars for every non-brown face you see—and lucrative make-work jobs for politically-connected construction and supply companies (all of whom have to be women-owned or minority-owned, naturally).