The Great Recession Is Not Over
2nd August 2011
Here is my definition of a recession:
- two or more consecutive quarters in which real GDP lower than real GDP in an earlier quarter, and
- the year-over-year change in real GDP is negative in at least one quarter.
The latest GDP estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate that the recession continues. By my definition, it has now lasted 14 quarters: 2008Q1 through 2011Q2. Real GDP for 2011Q2 was $13,270.1 billion (annualized rate, chained 2005 dollars), which is lower than the pre-recession peak of $13,326.0, which was reached in 2007Q4. Average annual real growth over the 3.5 years from 2007Q4 to 2011Q2 was -0.12 percent.