Elections You’re Not Watching Could Rewrite the Rules for 2028, Report Contends
28th October 2026
State legislative races this cycle could determine how elections are run for decades, with the potential for future laws on voter ID, undermining the Electoral College, noncitizen voting, and ranked-choice voting.
States could have enough votes after the elections to trigger the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, according to a report by the conservative group Honest Elections Project Action. Under the compact, a state would give its electoral votes to the national popular vote winner of a presidential election. The compact takes effect only if participating states can contribute a total of 270 electoral votes.
After Virginia entered the compact, the current member states collectively hold 222 electoral votes—just 48 votes away from 270. Five states outside the compact currently have divided government but appear to be leaning Democrat in legislative races: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
“Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are perennial presidential battlegrounds with 61 electoral votes between them,” the report says. “Each has divided government today but could become a Democrat trifecta on November 3rd.”
The report, released just one week before the midterms, contends the state legislative races “will decide what rules will govern the 2028 presidential election.”