California’s ‘Carpet-Bombed’ Wealth Tax Measure Runs Into a Wall
16th October 2026
Politico, a Voice of the Crust.
At a moment when populist candidates and anti-billionaire sentiment are surging nationally, a campaign to tax the assets of California’s billionaires is faltering.
Opponents are hammering the airwaves with ads portraying the tax as an economic wrecking ball, and the measure’s poll numbers have steadily eroded. Multiple surveys last month found it drawing only a narrow plurality, with support in the mid-40s — a warning sign for a campaign that needs to expand its coalition.
Ballot initiative veteran Chris Lehman pointed to one telling shift: Independents now oppose the wealth tax while supporting a separate tax measure for public schools. That, he said, “should’ve rang every alarm bell on Earth.”
“The trendlines from the polling I’ve seen are all looking bad for the yes side,” said Lehman, who is not working for either campaign. “They’re all looking good for the no side.”
A labor union’s proposal to offset federal health care cuts with a one-time, 5% tax on the state’s fewer than 300 billionaires has convulsed California politics from the moment it was filed late last year. Now, as ballots are hitting voters’ mailboxes, Proposition 40’s supporters are getting knocked back by powerful headwinds — including an opposition alliance comprising some of the state’s most powerful political players and richest residents.