Analysis: Senate Polls Overstated Dems by 6 Points
2nd October 2026
A new analysis of U.S. Senate polls from 2018 to 2024 in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio shows Democratic support was overstated by an average of more than 6 percentage points a little more than a month before Election Day.
Echelon Insights pollster Patrick Ruffini posted Wednesday on X that 93% of the polls examined overstated support for the Democratic candidate, with an average miss of 6.2 points 33 days before Election Day.
The average Democrat polling advantage in the three states this year is 6.6 points at the same point in the cycle.
Of course they are. Polls are not sources of information but rather tools of propaganda. This is plainly demonstrated by the publicity they receive by whichever side of a question appears stronger in the ‘poll’, as if a statistical trick were an invariable guarantee of the result.