California Is Running Out of Students—Why Fewer Births and Families Leaving Spell Trouble for the State
12th August 2026
Government schools depend on Federal giveaways, and those depend on how many students schools can sign up for the programs, even if they have to lie about qualifications.
“The total fertility rate in California has dropped from 2.21 children per woman in 2007 to 1.48 in 2023, well below the replacement level of 2.1 necessary to keep a population from declining.”
Migration has also played a role. Nearly 10 million Californians have moved to other states since 2010, and California currently has the nation’s largest net domestic outflow.
The implications extend beyond California schools facing potential downsizing. A shrinking younger population could eventually mean fewer workers supporting a growing older population, potentially straining the state’s economy and contributing to labor shortages.
If California’s population continues to lag behind growth in other states, Lafortune said, the state could eventually lose congressional representation.
And Lafortune does not expect the trend to reverse anytime soon.