Trump’s Chagos Rant Means He’s Preparing to Bomb Iran
19th February 2026
On Wednesday morning, one US government official thought there was a 90 per cent chance of the US declaring war on Iran within weeks.
By Wednesday afternoon, when Donald Trump demanded Sir Keir Starmer keep hold of the Diego Garcia military base, some had upgraded it to a “99 per cent chance”.
Exactly why Mr Trump suddenly turned on the Prime Minister’s deal to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius and rent back the joint US-UK base is unclear. He had issued a tepid endorsement of the agreement just two weeks ago.
But the theory spreading around Washington is that the US president’s hand was forced by the prospect of imminent war with Iran.