Red States Eye Big Gains as Census Shifts Hit Calif., N.Y.
28th January 2026
Republicans could see a major shift in congressional seats to Texas and Florida, while Democrats could be facing painful losses in California and New York if redistricting projections based on the 2030 Census hold true.
Such population shifts could also translate into meaningful gains in electoral votes, potentially allowing Republican presidential candidates to win national elections without needing to carry traditional battleground states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
The projections were made by Jonathan Cervas of Carnegie Mellon University and released Tuesday on X by The Redistrict Network. They are based on 2025 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.