The Myth of Falling Crime: Why Americans Don’t Trust the Numbers
11th October 2025
Every election season, mayors and governors step before cameras to boast that crime is down. Charts are waved, statistics are cited, and carefully crafted talking points are deployed to assure anxious citizens that their streets are safer than ever.
Yet when you leave the press conference and walk the sidewalks of Baltimore, Chicago, or Los Angeles, the reality feels far different. The gap between official numbers and lived experience is wide enough to swallow public trust whole.
The reason for this disconnect is simple: Most crime never gets reported in the first place. The Baltimore Sun recently highlighted what criminologists have known for decades—about half of all crime in America isn’t captured in police data. Burglaries are only reported 45% of the time. Simple assaults, 37%. Sexual assaults, a shameful 21%. Think about that for a moment: Nearly 4 out of 5 sexual assaults never reach the official record. Yet politicians still spin a story that safety is improving.