Holy Homeostasis, Batman!
24th July 2025
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Complex and dynamic systems self-regulate, moving through equilibrium states in response to stimuli and feedback. Seen from the outside, these systems, because they are complex and not deterministic, look like they are guided by some kind of invisible hand. We have a word for it: homeostasis.
In opposition to the simplistic thinking of journalists, politicians and morons (but I repeat myself), homeostasis is a primary reason why all models are wrong (though some are useful). The more complex the system being modeled, the less likely it is that anyone can accurately predict the future, because the systems have incredibly complex feedback mechanisms.
And yet, thanks to homeostasis, the world is far more stable than “experts” can understand. The ocean, for example, never tops 31C – when it gets close, storms invariably emerge and provide cooling. We live in a chaotic system that nevertheless ends up looking like it is externally regulated, because climate inherently seems to resist “runaway” scenarios.
And it works because complex systems prove to be far more resilient than we might have thought at first. Simple systems fail when stressed, but the very best systems are complex: they contain lots of independent actors, often in tension with each other.
These systems work: Think of all the predictions of global financial collapse that have sounded very sensible – but have yet to come true. The global financial system has countless actors of all kinds, and it often seems to defy gravity; it is simply too complicated to be able to pinpoint when, for example, the US debt is going to lead to a fundamental economic crisis – I remember Democrats predicting it would happen way back when Reagan was president! The timing of even inevitable outcomes seems to remain far beyond our reach.