A Prediction
30th June 2024
I have a prediction. I don’t think Biden’s debate face-plant will hurt him much with his core constituency, whites who earn over $200,000. Those voters are motivated by a combination of economic self-interest and an irrational hatred of Donald Trump. The large majority of them would vote for Biden if he died between now and the election.
The danger to Democrats lies elsewhere; specifically, with black and Hispanic voters. I predict that in two to three weeks, we will see a pretty dramatic shift in the polls among those voters. Both groups are already tending toward Trump and the Republicans, and are increasingly skeptical of the Democrats’ arrogant claim to be entitled to their votes, regardless of how poorly they perform.