Weapons: Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Capability
2nd May 2024
Iran has shown that it can penetrate Israeli ABM defenses with a few strategic ballistic missiles if it launches 100+ simultaneously, but Iran has not yet announced that it has missile-ready nuclear warheads. There are still claims that it can’t, but it is now clear that Iran can produce those whenever it wants.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said last summer that Iran had amassed 121.6 kilograms of 60 percent enriched U-235 and could produce more at the rate of 9kg a month. At this point there could be 202.6kg. There are December 2023 estimates that Iran can purify 3kg of 60 percent enriched U-235 uranium to 2kg of weapons-grade (90 percent) at the rate of 25kg a week. In two months all of Iran’s 202.6kg of 60 percent enriched could be 135kg of weapons-grade. That’s enough for 16 ballistic missile warheads.
In two months, starting any time from now, Iran could truthfully announce it has at least 16 nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles with ranges of 1500 kilometers, and can increase that by two every three months. This would probably be enough to deter attacks on Iran and allow it to order its proxies to attack its enemies with impunity. Those are Iran’s objectives in acquiring missile-ready nuclear weapons and are achievable in this way.