The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Not Exponential
6th April 2020
Contrary to what almost everyone has said during the last three months – from media talking heads to presidents and epidemiologists and your neighbor – the growth of pandemics is not exponential. The number of people infected and number of dead don’t follow “exponential” curves. They follow S-shaped curves.
An S-shaped curve is initially like an exponential curve, before it stagnates and levels off. What we’re arguing over is when exactly this exponential phase will end, and what we might be able to do to bring that fortuitous event closer.