Syria: The Rebellion Crumbles
4th October 2016
The Assad government is clearly defeating the 2011 rebellion. This is being done with the help of Russia, Iran and a temporary anti-ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) coalition that includes NATO, Turks, Arab Gulf states and Kurdish separatists. ISIL is likely to disappear as a major factor by early 2017 as the two major ISIL held cities (Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in eastern Syria) are about to be attacked and cleared of ISIL control. That will remove a major (over a third) of the rebel combat capability in Syria. Turkish troops entered Syria in late August to clear the ISIL and Kurdish groups from northern Syria. All this has weakened the rebels sufficiently to enable to Syrian army to advance against Aleppo and against rebels operating outside the capital (Damascus) since 2012. Turkey has offered to get involved in the offensive against Raqqa. Government forces are on their way towards regaining control of the southern and Iraqi borders by early 2017.