The Illusion of Knowledge
9th January 2025
The problem with totalitarian states is a problem of information, or lack thereof. No one wants to tell the boss that things didn’t turn out the way he planned. And there’s a hierarchy of bosses before the ultimate boss. At each level, the information is corrupted.
Suppose that you manage a factory making boots for the army. You were asked to make 4000 pairs of boots, but you only managed ten, because the leather for the boots never got to you. When the big boss asks for the boots, of course you tell him it’s on the way, the because you know the leather providers lied and said they got it to you. The guy in charge of transport, in turn, will tell his boss the trucks are fueled up and full of boots. The fact is no only doesn’t he have boots, but also no fuel and possibly no trucks.
This is why totalitarian regimes make wrong decisions and why they lose wars. Also why they’re absolutely convinced they’re the strongest, etc. until they lose.
Now I’m going to blow your mind: this is not exclusive to totalitarian states. It’s in fact endemic in any system where truth imposed from above and no redemption is possible. In fact, most centralized organizations of a certain size, with no countervailing culture.