Partitioning Syria
27th October 2013
After two-and-a-half years of steadily metastasizing violence in Syria, the harsh reality is that the country isn’t going to become a stable, unified state again in the foreseeable future, let alone a remotely democratic one. It may be time to start thinking about alternatives.
Nuke ’em ’til they glow and then shoot them in the dark. (Oh, sorry, did I say that out loud?)
Keenly aware of this, Obama administration officials continue to place their hopes on brokering a negotiated settlement providing for a peaceful transition to majoritarian rule in Syria. The problem is that powerful jihadist rebel factions and their wealthy donors in the Arab Gulf will never accept a political accord that curtails their pursuit of an Islamic state in Syria, while most Alawites and other minorities will reject any transition plan that doesn’t. There’s no way to bridge the gap until someone reins in the jihadists, and that clearly isn’t going to happen before pro-regime forces are decisively defeated (if then).
As with Obamacare, the present U.S. administration clings tightly to its fantasy that wishing will make it so. Perhaps we might call this the ‘Tinkerbell’ doctrine.