The New World Order: A Report on the World’s Emerging Spheres of Influence
19th November 2011
Joel Kotkin is always worth reading; he is involved with a new project, which this article introduces.
In our attempt to look at the emerging world order, we have followed the great Arab historian Ibn Khaldun’s notion that ethnic and cultural ties are more important than geographic patterns or levels of economic development. In history, shared values have been critical to the rise of spheres of influence across the world. Those that have projected power broadly – the Greek, Roman, Arab, Chinese, Mongol and British empires – shared intense ties of kinship and common cultural origins. As Ibn Khaldun observed: “Only tribes held together by a group feeling can survive in a desert.”
One would think that increasing globalization would be dissolving (or perhaps expanding would be a better word) local ties, and when it comes to commerce that’s pretty much true. But on the other hand, in the political sphere, the tendency seems to be toward fragmentation — the attempt to unify Europe is coming apart as we watch, and even such formerly tightly-integrated countries as Britain and Spain are feeling devolutionary pressures.
The prospects for the last great global grouping, the Anglosphere, are far stronger than many expect. Born out of the British Empire, and then the late 20th Century, the Anglosphere may be losing its claim to global hegemony, but it remains the first among the world’s ethnic networks in terms of everything from language and global culture to technology. More than the Indian Sphere and Sinosphere, the Anglosphere has shown a remarkable ability to incorporate other cultures and people.