Six Adults and One Child in China
11th October 2011
Globally population growth rates are likely to continue dropping – to less than 0.8 percent worldwide by 2025 – largely due to an unanticipated drop in birthrates in developing countries such as Mexico and Iran. These declines are in part the result of increased urbanization, the education of women, and higher property prices. Already the global fertility rate, including the developing countries, has dropped in half to an estimated 2.5 today (Longman, 2010a). Close to half the world’s population lives, notes demographer Nicholas Eberstadt, in countries with below replacement rate birth-rates. The world, he suggests, is experiencing a “fertility implosion” (Eberstadt, 2010).
Right now the situation seems dire. Fertility rates are projected to continue their decline. Increasing life expectancy is contributing to a substantial increase in the elderly population. In many nations, the size of the elderly population will exceed that of the under 15 population for the first time.
This could not have happened at a worse time, because the elderly have become ever more dependent on the state in many nations. Supporting a larger elderly population requires a larger work force, however it will be smaller.
October 11th, 2011 at 08:33
Mandatory euthenasia at age 75. It’s the only viable answer.
October 11th, 2011 at 10:31
Murder the unborn, murder the elderly, randomly rob and murder people in between – Michigan is a cruel and uninviting place.
October 11th, 2011 at 13:38
It’s nature red in tooth and claw around here, I tell ya.
We subscribe to the real marketplace in these parts; if you manage to survive through today you win the chance to try to survive through tomorrow…
This crisis will not go away. There are too many old people and not enough young people, and the proportions diverge further each day as medical technology advances.
Children no longer add any economic advantage, since they can’t produce income–unless you sell them–and they entail a significant expense for some 18 years or so. Simultaneously, the value that used to come with age continues to erode with the accelerating pace of technology; when your grandchild has to show you how to turn on your new TV, do you really think he/she is going to turn to you for answers? In the meantime your health is failing, your body is falling apart, and your mental faculties are turning to sand. How productive do you think a 70-year old can be in the modern technological world?
So when faced with economic liabilities at both ends of the spectrum, what can you do? You minimize your losses. You can always choose to not have children, but that only takes care of one half of the problem. We will eventually be faced with having to deal with the other half, and it won’t be pretty.
Remember Dr. Jack? He was from Michigan. At least he understood that folks should be provided, when their usefullness is gone, with a way to exit with dignity and relatively little pain instead of having to slam their car into a bridge abutment on I-696 at 80mph. And since the sea-ice is disappearing, they can’t even wander off to an ice floe and wait for the bear.
There’s no reason to hang around the dock after the ship has sailed. When I get too old or too infirm to enjoy the things I like, I’m going to check out. Maybe there’s a better world waiting, maybe not, but I’d rather face the unknown than end my days a in pampers being unable to remember my own name.