Should We Raise Taxes on the Middle Class? We Already Are
25th June 2010
As I argued in the Wall Street Journal in 2008, the income tax code is inadequately indexed for the growth of incomes. The income tax brackets—the dollar amounts that designate the tax rates that apply to an individual’s income—are indexed only for inflation, while incomes tend to rise about 1 percent faster than inflation each year. The result is that a greater and greater share of individuals’ incomes will fall into higher tax brackets, increasing taxes even if the formal tax rates remain the same.
The effects of this are larger than you’d think. According to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data, individual income tax receipts averaged 8.15 percent of Gross Domestic Product from 1953 through 2008. Due to the recession, this year they’re projected to equal around 8 percent of GDP.
But by 2020, income tax receipts are projected to rise to 9.5 percent of GDP, even if all of President Bush’s tax cuts are made permanent. By 2030, income tax receipts will rise to 10 percent of GDP, 22 percent higher than the historical level.