Red States, Blue Cities: Who’s to Blame for America’s Homicide Crisis
11th July 2023
There’s a debate raging over who’s responsible for the surge in homicides and violent crime across the country. California Gov. Gavin Newsom blames Republicans, saying that “8 of the top murder states are red.” Left-leaning think tank Third Way claims it’s “red” state-level leadership and policies that are responsible for the nation’s homicide problem. And Politico’s recent analysis on gun violence claims the problem is most acute in places “where Republicans have dominated state governments for decades.”
The problem with those arguments is that local governments, and not states, are overwhelmingly responsible for managing crime. Yes, state officials set criminal penalties and some broader parameters, but it’s mayors who control police and policing, local prosecutors who decide what to prosecute, and district/county judges who determine who to sentence.
State-level gun laws are often cited as the key factor explaining murder rates, but gun-friendly Maine, Idaho, Utah, Iowa have some of the nation’s lowest homicide rates, according to most-recent CDC data. Then there are states like Illinois, Maryland and Delaware that have strict gun laws and yet have relatively high homicide rates. Illinois often complains that the permissive gun laws of its neighboring states are to blame, but that doesn’t explain why its neighbors have much lower homicide rates.
The answer is that it’s not a red vs. blue state debate, but rather a red vs. blue city one. And when you look at America’s homicide hotspots, the vast majority are run by blue leadership and they have been for decades. The evidence is overwhelming.