Is the ‘Red Wave’ Fading?
9th September 2022
People who follow politics are familiar with the scenario. When a Republican “wave” appears likely, or a Republican presidential candidate develops a significant lead over the Democrat candidate, the media begin reporting “stories” that the wave is receding, and the Democrat is gaining ground.
Television networks prefer close races because it adds to ratings. For once influential newspapers, it used to help sales.
Are these claims true? It doesn’t matter to the media. A majority of journalists identify as liberals/Democrats. Neither does it matter how often polls are wrong. Like people who rely on psychics to tell them what they want to hear (“you will meet a tall, dark stranger”), accurate polls depend on the way the questions are asked, and the understanding people have about candidates and issues. They also depend on the size and political balance of the sample.
The most recent inaccurate polls occurred in the 2020 race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Pollsters had the largest margin of error in 40 years. In 1980, polls showed Jimmy Carter beating Ronald Reagan by six percentage points, according to a study by Vanderbilt University.
Now, the usual pro-Democrat newspapers, cable and broadcast networks are “reporting” on polls (in some cases commissioned by themselves) that show a red wave may not happen and Democrats might even produce a “miracle,” holding on to their slim congressional majority. Such polls also can have the effect of depressing Republican voter turnout. Why vote, goes the thinking, when it appears the result is already determined.