The 2022 Predictions
31st December 2021
ZMan peers ahead.
A clever way to make smart predictions is to start with the assumption that the near future is not going to be much different from the present. Current trends will extend out over the near term. On the other hand, if you want to get a lot of attention for yourself, you can make bold crazy predications that confirm deeply held suspicions. “Next year we see hyperinflation!” will get the gold bugs and Fed watchers excited. Everyone likes to hear that their dreams will come true in the coming year.
The trouble with either of those approaches is they are not motivated by the desire to figure out what may be coming in the new year. Sure, most things will probably be the same as last year, but so what? What matters is what will be different. Similarly, pretending the Great Pumpkin will rise from the pumpkin patch and finally deliver on his promises is just cheap theater. So, with that in mind, let us cut open the goat and read what the entrails tell us about the coming year.