Sudan: Peace Be Upon You Or Else
28th November 2018
Everyone in Sudan assumes that next year President (dictator) Omar al Bashir will run for a seventh term. However, the economic decline that began last in 2017 has accelerated. The escalating economic crisis could become a political crisis that topples even an entrenched dictator like Bashir who has been in power for three decades. Moreover 2019 looks rather dire. Inflation is increasing. Economic analysts think hyperinflation is a possibility. Bashir of course blames U.S. sanctions, but those are being relaxed. Bashir’s critics blame his regime’s mismanagement and corruption. Critics point to the 2017 North Islamic Bank embezzlement scandal as an example. At least $230 million was stolen. Sudan has also borrowed a lot of money. It currently owes somewhere between from $55 billion to $60 billion, roughly 120 percent of GDP. Sudan owes China at least $10 billion and is in no position to pay back the debt. The loss of oil income is certainly a major factor in Sudan’s economic decline. When South Sudan became independent, it got most of the oil fields (roughly 75 percent of Sudan’s oil production). However, Sudan still has the pipelines and major oil port (Port Sudan). The truth is, government mismanagement has contributed to the loss of oil and oil transport income. When oil prices were high Bashir’s regime didn’t spend the oil revenue on modernizing its industrial and agricultural sectors. It didn’t spend much on upgrading its oil service industry. Instead Sudan spent the petrodollars on war (Darfur, civil war with southern Sudan) and military-related projects. A lot of government contracts went to businesses owned by government officials. Just how much is murky. At the moment the UN and EU estimate Sudan has around two million internally displaced people (many in the Darfur region and 900,000 refugees. About six million people are on the edge of starvation. In 2019 Sudan is supposed to have a national election. It could have another rebellion