Senate Mid-Term Preview
10th August 2018
The close shave Republicans experienced in Ohio this past week revived Democratic hopes of a landslide this November. Losing by less than 1 percent in a solidly GOP district is certainly a moral victory. Of course, 218 moral victories in November would keep them in the minority.
Funny how that works.
How can a Democratic wave give Republicans more Senate seats? For one thing, Democrats are defending 24 seats and ten in states won by President Trump. The GOP is only defending nine seats, including one in a state won by Hillary Clinton.
On average, the President’s party loses just one seat in the first mid-term, ranging from a 9-seat loss in 1994 to a 4-seat gain in 1962. Why so few? The 6-year term means that the political landscape six years previous has a significant effect.