Cooling Down the Fears of Climate Change
22nd December 2012
And about damned time, too.
In short: We can now estimate, based on observations, how sensitive the temperature is to carbon dioxide. We do not need to rely heavily on unproven models. Comparing the trend in global temperature over the past 100-150 years with the change in “radiative forcing” (heating or cooling power) from carbon dioxide, aerosols and other sources, minus ocean heat uptake, can now give a good estimate of climate sensitivity.
The conclusion—taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal-average global temperature between 1871-80 and 2002-11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake—is this: A doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6°-1.7°C (2.9°-3.1°F).
This is much lower than the IPCC’s current best estimate, 3°C (5.4°F).
December 23rd, 2012 at 21:13
I’d be a lot more willing to believe in the predictions of Global Warming (TM) if the weather forecasts for tomorrow were as accurate as they claim their models are. Really? You’re predicting 3 degrees average change and you expect me to jump through hoops because of it? I see more than that much difference between the actual high temperature and the predicted high temperature in a single day locally. Of course, remembering all the shrieking in the 70’s about The Next Ice Age (also TM) that was going to start Real Soon Now, also makes me skeptical of any global climate change prediction.