Let’s Put the Future Behind Us
23rd November 2014
Charlie Stross takes a break from being a communist in a Clever Plastic Disguise to talk about something interesting.
Big-ass L5 space colonies as envisaged by Professor Gerard K. O’Neill in his book The High Frontier turn out to be both economically and biologically questionable. To be fair, it’s not entirely his fault: he took NASA’s early-1970s estimates of Space Shuttle flight rates as gospel—one flight per week, costs around $1M/ton delivered into orbit—back when they were selling it as a “space truck”. At which point, hauling 50,000 tons of hardware and 10,000 workers into orbit to build a gigantic factory town churning out gigawatt range solar power stations using materials mined from the lunar regolith and positioned where they could transmit microwave power beams down to Earth 24×7 sounded like it should cost about as much as the 350-odd tons and 6 astronaut crew of the ISS. And as a solution to the 1974 oil shock, it seemed like a good idea. If we ever do get space trucks like that, it might be time to dust off those concept drawings and go for it. But in the meantime …