The Sound and Fury of Trump’s Paris Pull Out
2nd June 2017
Trump taking issue with the GCF isn’t an uncommon objection. He is expressing a fear that is shared—spoken or not—by policymakers in every developed nation. No country wants to be on the hook for a blank check issued to the developing world to help install anything with affixed with an “eco-” or “clean” prefix. Furthermore, the fund has thus far failed at its only two tasks: raising money and spending it. Even the most optimistic estimates show the GCF to be $40 billion short of its $100 billion annual goal this year, and what cash it has managed to raise from the West, it has struggled to spend in the developing world. There are real causes for concern that the GCF cash that has been doled out hasn’t been spent in a smart manner. Anyone familiar with the foreign aid world could have told tell you that this was all but inevitable.
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Internationally, Trump has flipped the bird to world. Developing countries will be gnashing their teeth at the thought of America backing out its financial commitments. Don’t be surprised to see a kind of domino effect, with leaders in the developing world jumping ship now that the cash flow promised them through the GCF could be drying up. As for the richer countries, they will see it as something akin to green treason.
China may try to exploit the opening, and talk a big game about joining the EU in taking on a climate leadership role. If this comes to pass, understand that it will be nothing more than posturing. China is far and away the global leader in greenhouse gas emissions, and for all of the EU’s stern tone and finger wagging on climate change, the bloc’s latest data show that its emissions actually increased 0.5 percent in 2015. Contrast that with the United States, which saw emissions drop a whopping 3 percent last year as a result of the continuing (shale-enabled) transition from coal to natural gas.